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王蕾, 贤悦, 张偲琪, 白钰, [比利时]杜燕(Dorien Emmers), [荷兰]缅诺·普拉丹(Menno Pradhan), [美]罗斯高(Scott Rozelle). 中国农村儿童早期发展:政府投资的效益-成本分析[J]. 华东师范大学学报(教育科学版), 2019, 37(3): 118-128. doi: 10.16382/j.cnki.1000-5560.2019.03.010
引用本文: 王蕾, 贤悦, 张偲琪, 白钰, [比利时]杜燕(Dorien Emmers), [荷兰]缅诺·普拉丹(Menno Pradhan), [美]罗斯高(Scott Rozelle). 中国农村儿童早期发展:政府投资的效益-成本分析[J]. 华东师范大学学报(教育科学版), 2019, 37(3): 118-128. doi: 10.16382/j.cnki.1000-5560.2019.03.010
Wang Lei, Xian Yue, Zhang Siqi, Bai Yu, Dorien Emmers, Menno Pradhan, Scott Rozelle. Benefit-Cost Calculations of Government Investment into Early Childhood Development in Rural China[J]. Journal of East China Normal University (Educational Sciences), 2019, 37(3): 118-128. doi: 10.16382/j.cnki.1000-5560.2019.03.010
Citation: Wang Lei, Xian Yue, Zhang Siqi, Bai Yu, Dorien Emmers, Menno Pradhan, Scott Rozelle. Benefit-Cost Calculations of Government Investment into Early Childhood Development in Rural China[J]. Journal of East China Normal University (Educational Sciences), 2019, 37(3): 118-128. doi: 10.16382/j.cnki.1000-5560.2019.03.010

中国农村儿童早期发展:政府投资的效益-成本分析

doi: 10.16382/j.cnki.1000-5560.2019.03.010
基金项目: 

国家自然科学基金项目 71703084

高等学校学科创新引智计划 B16031

详细信息
    作者简介:

    [比利时]杜燕(Dorien Emmers):杜燕(Dorien Emmers),比利时鲁汶大学博士,主要从事儿童早期发展领域的研究。

    [荷兰]缅诺·普拉丹(Menno Pradhan):缅诺·普拉丹(Menno Pradhan),荷兰阿姆斯特丹自由大学经济与管理学院教授,曾任职于美国康乃尔大学和世界银行,主要从事儿童早期发展领域的研究。

    [美]罗斯高(Scott Rozelle):罗斯高(Scott Rozelle),美国斯坦福大学教授,国际研究所高级研究员,农村教育行动计划主任,主要从事中国农业经济、农村发展和农村教育领域领域的研究。

    通讯作者:

    罗斯高(Scott Rozelle)

Benefit-Cost Calculations of Government Investment into Early Childhood Development in Rural China

  • 摘要: 儿童早期发展(Early Childhood Development,ECD)项目主要目标之一是为儿童接受小学和更高的教育做学前准备。众所周知,ECD项目大部分收益体现在参与项目儿童会有更高的入学率、更少辍学并获得更好的学业表现。然而,中低收入国家往往不了解ECD项目的投资价值,因此,政府迫切需要有相关数据,以便为实施推广ECD项目提供政策决策的参考。本研究利用政府发布的公开数据和相关研究数据,采用世界银行研发的ECD效益成本测算工具,测算了中国政府在农村地区开展ECD项目的效益-成本比。结果表明,在中国农村地区,政府投资ECD项目的回报率非常高,其效益-成本比为4.2-9.3,如果换算为投资回报率的话,大致为7-15%。与政府投资的其它项目相比,这一回报率较高,也与世界上其它国家实施的ECD项目的投资回报率大致相同。因此,从效益-成本角度考虑,中国政府应该大力开展ECD项目,尤其侧重提高农村地区人力资本质量,为中国未来社会经济可持续发展提供良好的人力资本储备。
  • 表  1  数据定义

    数据 定义
    人口统计学数据
      儿童死亡率 5岁以下儿童死亡率
      儿童入学年龄 政府法定的儿童入学年龄
      工作年龄 政府法定的工作年龄
      退休年龄 政府法定的退休年龄
    教育系统数据
      教育水平 小学、初中、高中、大学
      教育年限 不同教育阶段的教育年限/学制
      教育成本 不同教育阶段的学费
      入学率 不同教育阶段的入学率
      复读率 不同教育阶段的复读率
      辍学率 不同教育阶段的辍学率
    ECD项目数据
      干预时长 ECD项目的实施长度(年)
      干预成本 ECD项目的年人均成本
      干预后数据 ECD项目实施后儿童死亡率、入学率、复读率和辍学率
    明瑟方程系数 常数项、受教育年限、工作经验、工作经验平方项
    宏观经济参数
      贴现率 计算未来现金流现值时采用的利率
      汇率 以美元表示的本国货币的价格
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  ECD计算器输出结果及定义

    输出结果 定义
    (1) ECD项目实施前的效益净现值 未实施ECD项目情况下,在当前教育系统中接受教育的儿童与未接受教育的儿童未来收入净现值之差
    (2) ECD项目实施后的效益净现值 实施ECD项目情况下,在实施ECD项目的教育系统中接受教育的儿童与未接受教育的儿童未来收入净现值之差
    (3)实施ECD项目的效益变化 不考虑ECD项目成本的情况下,效益在实施ECD项目前后的变化[(2)-(1)]
    (4) ECD项目的成本净现值 ECD项目的成本进行贴现后的价值
    (5) ECD项目的效益-成本比 实施ECD项目的效益变化/ECD项目的成本净现值[(3)/(4)]
    注:在ECD计算器中,(1)、(2)、(3)、(4)行的数据既要输入以本国货币计算的价值,也要输入以美元计算的价值。
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  不同教育阶段的学制、学费、入学率、复读率和辍学率

    教育阶段 学制
    (年)
    学费
    (元/人/年)
    入学率(%) 复读率
    (%)
    辍学率(%)
    小学 6 1, 169 100 5 2
    初中 3 1, 857 100 0 15
    普通高中 3 3, 105 87 5 22
    大学本科 4 11, 088 45 0 2
    数据来源:Yang等人(2015)Chang, Min, Shi, Kenny, and Loyalka(2016)Chen, Liu, Zhang, Shi, and Rozelle(2010).
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4  实施ECD项目后不同教育阶段的入学率、复读率和辍学率

    学制类型 入学率(%) 复读率(%) 辍学率(%)
    小学 100 2 2
    初中 100 5 0
    普通高中 94 15 2
    大学本科 53 1 0
    注:ECD项目实施期限为2年;每个儿童年平均成本为650美元;项目实施后5岁以下儿童死亡率估计为8‰。
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  5  ECD项目干预前后的净现值变化及成本—效益比

    人民币元 美元
    效益净现值(ECD项目实施前) 335, 680, 973.08 50, 352, 145.96
    效益净现值(ECD项目实施后) 340, 760, 587.44 51, 114, 088.12
    效益净现值的变化 5, 079, 614.36 761, 942.15
    干预成本净现值 1, 208, 616.78 181, 292.52
    效益—成本比 4.20 4.20
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  6  ECD项目干预前后的净现值变化及成本—效益比

    人民币元 美元
    效益净现值(ECD项目实施前) 464, 595, 095.45 69, 689, 264.32
    效益净现值(ECD项目干预后) 475, 981, 212.52 71, 397, 181.88
    效益净现值的变化 11, 386, 117.07 1, 707, 917.56
    干预成本净现值 1, 223, 856.78 183, 578.52
    效益—成本比 9.30 9.30
    注:贴现率为4.12%的敏感性分析
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  7  ECD项目干预前后的净现值变化及成本—效益比

    人民币元 美元
    效益净现值(ECD项目实施前) 335, 680, 973.08 50, 352, 145.96
    效益净现值(ECD项目干预后) 344, 554, 707.85 51, 683, 206.18
    效益净现值的变化 8, 873, 734.77 1, 331, 060.22
    干预成本净现值 1, 208, 616.78 181, 292.52
    效益—成本比 7.34 7.34
    注:ECD项目实施后初中辍学率为0%的敏感性分析
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  8  ECD项目干预前后的净现值变化及成本—效益比

    人民币元 美元
    效益净现值(ECD项目实施前) 335, 680, 973.08 50, 352, 145.96
    效益净现值(ECD项目干预后) 346, 857, 003.85 52, 028, 550.58
    效益净现值的变化 11, 176, 030.77 1, 676, 404.62
    干预成本净现值 1, 208, 616.78 181, 292.52
    效益—成本比 9.25 9.25
    注:ECD项目实施后高中辍学率为10%的敏感性分析
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  9  ECD项目干预前后的净现值变化及成本—效益比

    人民币元 美元
    效益净现值(ECD项目实施前) 335, 680, 973.08 50, 352, 145.96
    效益净现值(ECD项目干预后) 340, 760, 587.44 51, 114, 088.12
    效益净现值的变化 5, 079, 614.36 761, 942.15
    干预成本净现值 604, 308.39 90, 646.26
    效益—成本比 8.41 8.41
    注:ECD项目人年均下降50%的敏感性分析
    下载: 导出CSV
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