条件推理概率解释模型中的隐性预设及其实证检验

余达祥

条件推理概率解释模型中的隐性预设及其实证检验

余达祥

南昌航空大学自动化学院，南昌 330063

① Oaksford, M., Chater, N., & Larkin, J.(2000). Probabilities and polarity biases in conditional inference. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 26:883-889.
② Oaksford, M., & Chater, N. (2003). Conditional probability and cognitive science of conditional reasoning. Mindand Language, Vol.18, 4;359-379.
③ Ramsey, FP. (1999). General propositions and causality. Foundations: Essay in philosophy, logic, mathematics and economics, London: Humanities press, pp.103-122.
④ Ramsey, F.P.(1931). The foundation of mathematics and other logical essays. London:Routledge & Kegan Paul.
⑤ Stalnaker, R.C.(1968). A theory of conditionals, studies in logical theory, Oxford, England: Blackwell.
⑥ Stalnaker, R.C. (1970). Probability and conditionals. Philosophia of Science, 37:64-80.
⑦ Lewis, D.(1976). Probability of conditionals and conditional probabilities. Philosophical Review.85:297-315.
⑧ Lewis, D. (1986). Probability of conditionals and conditional probabilities Ⅱ. Philosophical Review.95:581-589
⑨ Adams, E.W.(1975). The logic of conditionals: An application of probability to deductive logic.Dordrecht, the Netherlands: Reidel.
⑩ Feller, W.(1950). AnIn troduction to probability theory and its applications.Wiley Publishing, Inc
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出版历程
- 刊出日期: 2009-10-10

摘要

摘要: 过对条件推理概率解释模型的数学分析，发现相对于不同概率空间取得的前、后件概率不满足条件概率的定义要求。基于条件概率的条件推理解释模型隐含着共属类假设，即认为推理者能在同一概率空间对条件命题的前、后件发生率做出评估，但未给出任何实验证明。为验证条件推理概率解释模型，分别进行了有关该模型的概率一致性检验和共属类假设检验。实验结果表明，被试的推理行为不满足该模型蕴含的概率一致性要求及共属类假设，被试的条件推理行为不能用Oaksford条件概率模型来解释。
- 条件推理 /
- 条件概率模型 /
- 共属类假设
注释:

1) ① Oaksford, M., Chater, N., & Larkin, J.(2000). Probabilities and polarity biases in conditional inference. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 26:883-889.

2) ② Oaksford, M., & Chater, N. (2003). Conditional probability and cognitive science of conditional reasoning. Mindand Language, Vol.18, 4;359-379.

3) ③ Ramsey, FP. (1999). General propositions and causality. Foundations: Essay in philosophy, logic, mathematics and economics, London: Humanities press, pp.103-122.

4) ④ Ramsey, F.P.(1931). The foundation of mathematics and other logical essays. London:Routledge & Kegan Paul.

5) ⑤ Stalnaker, R.C.(1968). A theory of conditionals, studies in logical theory, Oxford, England: Blackwell.

6) ⑥ Stalnaker, R.C. (1970). Probability and conditionals. Philosophia of Science, 37:64-80.

7) ⑦ Lewis, D.(1976). Probability of conditionals and conditional probabilities. Philosophical Review.85:297-315.

8) ⑧ Lewis, D. (1986). Probability of conditionals and conditional probabilities Ⅱ. Philosophical Review.95:581-589

9) ⑨ Adams, E.W.(1975). The logic of conditionals: An application of probability to deductive logic.Dordrecht, the Netherlands: Reidel.

10) ⑩ Feller, W.(1950). AnIn troduction to probability theory and its applications.Wiley Publishing, Inc